The Rebuilt Forecast
Current September 2026The forecast page has been rebuilt on ground that holds: per species, per day, as a percentage above or below a normal day that month. Wind, moon phase and air pressure are gone. Not because they did not fit, but because they did not earn their place. Plus a new big-fish atlas, language in the URL, and a noticeably faster site.
Specialist
The forecast, rebuilt
- Per species, per day: how many percent above or below a normal day in that month. The 0-to-100 score is gone, because it implied a precision that was never measured.
- The series is monotonic: a day the model rates higher never shows a lower percentage than one it rates lower.
- Only species with demonstrable day-to-day skill get a daily strip. For the rest we show what does hold up: the season.
What we took out
- Wind was by far the largest factor in the old model. It turned out to be the shape of the coastline rather than the weather. We wrote up how we found it and what it cost us.
- Moon phase as timing, air pressure as a feeding switch, water level as height above datum: all three failed against our own data.
- What survived carries the model: when in the year you fish, and then water temperature. In that order.
Season per species
- A monthly index per species, corrected for how much fishing happened that month at all. Without that correction every species is a summer species, simply because August reports over four times as much as January.
- The seasonal charts were computing from survey data rather than angler catches. Fixed.
- Closed season and naming for eel reviewed and corrected.
Big fish, measured again
- Big-fish analysis now works per water rather than per grid cell. A canal and a city pond in the same cell are not the same place.
- What counts as big is derived per species from the national length distribution rather than picked as a round number. That follows the Gabelhouse quality-length convention from fisheries science, anchored against the published values where they exist.
- Every species is re-tested each night: against shuffled data to expose patterns that are only clustering, and against itself split in half to see whether the result reproduces. Only species that pass get a claim.
- Hundreds of thousands of length measurements from survey work added, which had been lost at import.
Language in the URL
- Dutch sits on the plain URL, English and German under /en/ and /de/. Every page now has its own shareable link per language, instead of a language choice that existed only inside your own browser.
Under the hood
- Three independent data checks run every night: is the data fresh, did each source actually write anything, and is any month far below its seasonal normal. A silent two-month outage is what put us onto this.
- Critical CSS is now inlined up front, so the first paint no longer waits on a stylesheet.
- An interrupted sign-in now lands on a page in your own language instead of an error.
- Every public page can also be requested as plain markdown, for anyone reading the site through a language model.